History Tells Us...Winning Game 4 Is Nice, But Not Imperative

So most of the series are heading into game four now.

Vancouver and Boston are up 3 games to 0, giving them a real stranglehold on the series. According to WhoWins.com, NHL teams with a 3-0 series lead have a 98.7% likelihood of taking the series. The number jumps up to 99.2% if the team in the lead is also the top seed.

More good news for Canucks and Bruins fans. Historically speaking there is a 64.5% chance that the team with a 3-0 lead will also win game four and sweep the series.

Chicago, Pittsburgh, New York and New Jersey are all up 2 games to 1.

The good news is the leading team still has a 70.1% likelihood of winning the series, increasing to 77.5% for the top seeded teams.

The bad news is it is unlikely these teams will win game four. Only 47.1% of the time does the team extend the lead to 3-1. Being the top seed only improves the odds to 48.2%

How important is game four? Considering teams can potentially go up to a commanding 3-1 lead or equalize the series at 3-2, winning game four is not as important you might think. Here's a look at the winning percentage data from 1994 through 2008.

Winner of Game #1: 145-65 0.690
Winner of Game #2: 151-59 0.719
Winner of Game #3: 133-77 0.633
Winner of Game #4: 130-80 0.619
Winner of Game #5: 132-49 0.729
Winner of Game #6: 99-23 0.811
Winner of Game #7: 50-0 1.000

Still, going up 3-1 is essential. 234 times a series has seen one team lead 3-1 in a best of seven series since 1918. The leader has a series winning percentage of .915

Compare that to 398 series that have been knotted at 2-2. There is no advantage in that case, with the series being split an even 50/50!

In other news:

Former Hab Michael Ryder scored the game winner against Montreal on Monday night. In doing so he became only the second former Hab to do so in the past 32 years. The other was Sean Hill back on May 13, 2002.

The Canadiens have now lost seven straight playoff games, tying a club record set from 1962 to 1963 and again from 1996 to 1997. I think they will set a new record in game four.

In New York, Washington rookie goalie became the second youngest goalie to win against the Rangers at Madison Square Gardens. You may have heard of the youngest goalie - Patrick Roy.